Will Trump announce the end of military operations against Iran before June?

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From the publication date through May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Market Close: May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Resolution Time: The resolution will be determined after Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.

Resolution Criteria:

• Resolves to “Yes” if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by Market Close.
• Resolves to “No” if not.

Resolution Details:

• Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
• Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
• The official White House communication channels will serve as the primary resolution source for this market.
• If the primary resolution source does not report on an end of military operations, the following secondary sources may be used: the White House official social media accounts, Donald Trump’s official social media accounts or reporting from Reuters, AP, and Bloomberg.

Cancelation Conditions:

• Any circumstance prevents reliable tracking during the Market Period or reliable resolution at Market Close.
• Donald Trump is removed as President of the United States of America for any reason.

In the event of cancelation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancelation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.