US Boots on the Ground before May?

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From the publication date until April 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Market Close: April 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Resolution Time: The outcome will be determined after Market Close, or earlier if the result becomes clear.

Resolution Criteria:

• Resolves to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran during the Market Period.
• Resolves to “No” if no qualifying entry occurs before Market Close.

For the purposes of this market:

• US Special Operations Forces or other active US military units entering Iranian land territory will qualify.
• US military personnel must physically enter Iran’s land territory. Entering Iranian airspace or maritime territory alone will not qualify.

The following will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution:

• Intelligence operatives acting in a non-military capacity.
• Military contractors.
• Military advisors.
• Diplomatic visits by US military officials or defense officials.
• High-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic or ceremonial purposes, including their accompanying delegations.

Resolution Details:

Resolution will rely on official confirmation from the US government, the Iranian government, or reporting from major international news organizations such as:

• Reuters
• Associated Press
• BBC
• Al Jazeera English

A single reliable confirmation from one of these sources is enough for resolution, as long as it isn’t immediately contradicted by others prior to market resolution.

Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions

• Reliable confirmation cannot be established through the resolution sources.
• The listed resolution sources become unavailable, unreliable, or experience major disruptions.
• Any circumstance prevents verifying whether US military personnel entered Iranian land territory.
• Myriad Markets undergoes a major technical or contractual change requiring cancellation of active markets.

If canceled, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation.