Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by mid-2026?

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From market publication until June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Market Closes: June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Resolution Time: June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, or earlier if an outcome is reached.

Resolution Criteria:

• The market resolves to “Yes” if Americans receive stimulus checks before the Resolution Time.
• The market resolves to “No” if not.

Resolution Details:

• To qualify for a “Yes” resolution the stimulus checks must be at least in part directly attributable to tariff revenue.
• The distribution of the stimulus checks must begin before the Resolution Time and they must be be intended for a broad distribution (at least 1 million Americans).
• To proof the intent and start of the distribution, the White House communication channels will be used as a primary resolution source. In cases of dispute or unavailability of data, the following secondary sources may be used to confirm: Reuters, APNews or PBS.

Cancelation (Invalidity) Conditions:

• The resolution sources become unavailable, unreliable, or experiences major changes preventing verification.
• Any major external factor prevents fair or consistent resolution.

If canceled, participants may claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on their open positions.