Russia/Ukraine ceasefire before August?

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From the publication date to July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Market Close: July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Resolution Time: This market will be resolved after the Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.

Yes/No Criteria:

• Resolves to "Yes" if both Russia and Ukraine formally agree to a complete ceasefire through an official, publicly announced agreement before or at Resolution Time. The agreement must mandate a total cessation of all military operations—including but not limited to ground, air, naval, and cyber warfare—across all territories involved in the conflict (e.g., Ukraine, Russian-occupied territories, and border regions). Additionally, the ceasefire must be bilateral, with both Russia and Ukraine explicitly committing to halting all offensive and defensive military actions against each other, and it must apply to the entire conflict zone without geographic exceptions (e.g., it cannot exclude specific regions like Donbas or Crimea).
• Resolves to "No" if all of the above conditions are not met before the Market Period ends

Resolution:

• To confirm Ukraine’s agreement to the ceasefire, the official President’s website will be used as resolution source: https://www.president.gov.ua/en
• To confirm Russia’s agreement to the ceasefire, the official government’s website will be used as resolution source: http://en.kremlin.ru/
• To trigger a “Yes” resolution, the ceasefire must come into effect during the Market Period
• The official social media accounts of both Ukraine and Russia will be used as secondary sources if needed

The following scenarios will not trigger a “Yes” resolution:

1. Humanitarian Pauses: Temporary halts in fighting for humanitarian purposes, such as allowing civilian evacuations or aid deliveries, do not qualify
2. Informal Agreements: Verbal, unofficial, or non-binding commitments do not qualify
3. Partial Ceasefires: Agreements that cover only specific regions, fronts, or types of military activity (e.g., a ceasefire limited to artillery or drone strikes) do not qualify
4. Unilateral Actions: A ceasefire declared by only one side without mutual agreement from the other does not qualify

Cancelation Conditions

The market will be canceled if:

• Both resolution sources become unavailable, unreliable, or experience significant disruptions for prolonged periods
• Any circumstance prevents determining the outcome

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.