Average ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz back above ten before April?

Market Context:

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, through which a significant share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas is transported. It is currently a major focus of global attention due to its central role in the ongoing conflicts, which has disrupted shipping, reduced transit traffic, and affected global energy markets.

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From the publication date through March 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Observation Period: From the publication date through March 31, 2026, according to the resolution source.
• Market Close: March 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Resolution Deadline: Once the resolution source has published the data for March 31, 2026, or earlier if an outcome is reached.

Resolution Criteria:

• Resolves to "Yes" if the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz is higher than 10 at any point during the Observation Period.
• Resolves to “No” if not.

Resolution Details:

• IMF Portwatch reports of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz will be used for resolution, specifically:
  • 7-day Moving Average.
  • All data points during the Observation Period.
• Subsequent revisions of the resolution sources data after the market has been resolved will not be considered.
• Ships not reported by the resolution source will not be considered.

Cancellation Conditions:

• The resolution source is unavailable or compromised.
• Extraordinary circumstances prevent reliable determination of the outcome.

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.