Will Donald Trump visit China before May 2026?

Market Dates

• Market Period: From market publication through to April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Market Close: April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Resolution Time: At Market Close, or earlier if an outcome is reached.

Resolution Criteria:

• Resolves to “Yes” if Donald Trump visits China during the Market Period.
• Resolves to "No" if not.

Resolution Details:

• A "visit" is defined as Donald J. Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of mainland China.
• Simply entering Chinese airspace (such as during a flight stopover or while on route to another destination) does not qualify as a visit for this market. A positive resolution requires Trump to physically set foot on mainland Chinese soil.
• A visit to non-mainland China, including but not exclusive to Hong Kong and Taiwan, does not count for a “Yes” resolution.

Resolution Sources:

• Primary Source: The White House official website.
• Secondary Sources: Trump's verified social media accounts (e.g., twitter.com/POTUS) or confirmation from the international media outlets Associated Press, Reuters, CNN or BBC News.

Cancellation Conditions:

• The visit's status cannot be definitively determined using the specified resolution sources.
• Major geopolitical events make travel between the U.S. and China impossible.
• Extraordinary circumstances prevent reliable verification of the outcome.

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.